The 20-year-old GO about to release its full potential
4.6.2021
MARKUS KLIMSCHEFFSKIJ
What is in the cards for the GO system?
Time for my last blog-post of the week. Earlier I wrote about the history of GOs from birth to the verge of adulthood. Now, I set upon the impossible task of predicting what the future holds for them. Unlike with the first blog-post, I can’t draw from own experience, since my kids are not even in school yet. Hence, this is a lot to promise, but then again, forecasting is just a fancier word for guessing…
Status quo – Starting point
We are currently in the middle of a hailstorm! The RED II is out and the CEN-16325 standard is being drafted, but will not be finished by the deadline for national implementation of the RED II. So, in any case, countries must hit a moving target in designing their new GO systems.
In the coming years, we need to solve the details of how issuing and disclosure work for new energy carriers, among other things. We can build upon the existing solid basis, but have to keep in mind the differences such as handling of offgrid production and consumption, differences in audits, measurement and verification, carrier conversions and overlap (especially hydrogen), lacking disclosure regimes, parallel tracking schemes, energy storages, quality and temperature differences… With the great work of FaStGO in 2020, we’re off to a jumpstart, but still far from actual implementation.
It’s as though the GO is a college freshman introduced to the grand variety of classical literature, psychology and beer-pongs to choose from as the direction of its next years. That is not necessarily a bad thing, because this will enable GOs to reach a whole new state of being. However, the growth and evolution of the system to new heights would not be possible without the solid foundation we have built during the past 10 years of stability (see my first blog). Without that, it could easily be game-over.
Year 2025 The college graduate
During the past 5 years the AIB and the wider GO community, new EU funded projects and the GO market actors have worked hard to harmonize practices on a European-level. Together with the finalized CEN-16325 standard, the stakeholders have successfully set up timelines and procedures as well as flexible guidelines on how the enlarged GO system works. RED II revision has been carried out and enforces these commonly established principles.
Especially on the electricity-side, GOs are increasingly issued for all energy sources. This boosts the reliability and transparency of the GO system and makes the use of the leftover mix more justified. The residual mix no longer automatically contains all fossil and nuclear generation of the country, which in turn opens the door for much greater variety between energy suppliers’ disclosure mixes.
Auctions and centralized market-places have continued their rise, supported by mutual learning across Member States and market actors on building well-functioning GO markets. Energy source continues as the main element of productization, followed by e.g. location and receipt of public support. The OTC market and service providers are also needed to cater for more tailored services.
Temporal matching of production and consumption has evolved and is increasingly utilized by larger consumers as further justification for sustainability and carbon neutrality claims. Temporal matching serves a group of advanced market actors and consumers and requires tailored services as well as modifications to information systems.
Year 2030 The young career rocket
The energy disclosure system has now been successfully rolled out to all energy carriers and effectively supports sector coupling including the hydrogen economy. The past 10 years of evolution have led to widespread adoption of GOs throughout Europe and to similar systems globally for all energy carriers and energy sources.
In many countries GOs are automatically issued for all production devices in the given energy system against device and measurement data of the grid operator or relevant other body. Due to process standardization and use of existing data this can be achieved with little or no additional work in the long-run, but requires extra resources to set up. GOs are allocated to consumption first by choice then by automated distribution, which completely eliminates the need for a residual mix.
2035 The Golden years
The European power grid-mix is close to CO2-free and renewable electricity is substantially cheaper than fossil. District heating systems are approaching 100% renewable and power-based generation. Cost-parity of renewable energy spreads increasingly to other energy carriers such as gas and hydrogen.
What’s great about the GO is that they will continue to be relevant even in a 100% renewable and emission-free energy system, because people will still care how their energy was produced. Different factors might be more important. For instance the social elements of the labor force, time of production, fishing routes, safety issues, whether the windmill was built in an esthetically suitable place may carry more weight then – consumer choice, however, does not grow old.
But how to get past the current turmoil?
In the coming years we will expand and transform the GO system. This will include turmoil and growth pain, but as predicted above, will lead to something far greater than before. Before we reach that, you might ask how to survive from the rocky years ahead with dry feet.
For the time being, I would strongly suggest picking a service provider that knows GOs like its own pockets. Even to the extent that it is willing to bear the entire financial and technical risk of changing standards, directives and regulation for you. A service provider that can help you every day to continuously improve the GO system you operate and flexibly adapt to changes. If you can’t think of any, give us a call and we’ll let you in on the secret.
Thank you for reading and looking forward for the challenges and good times ahead!
Episcript: Year 3000
Of course, we must realize that every story, no matter how beautiful, ends someday. Let’s make sure that the GOs live a long and prosperous life and significantly contribute to building a renewable, carbon-free and secure energy system throughout the world. Even though we might not see it every day, all of us working with renewable energy and GOs are an integral part of the transformation to something better. The story of GOs will end someday, but as we know, energy never disappears, it just transforms.